Long term weather forecast for October 2022



In Northern Federal District Estimated average temperature in October is — 0…+5°С, which is close to usual, in some places it can be    degree above normal. Expected rainfall — 50-90 mm, which is within the normal range, in the Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions, an excess of moisture is likely.

At the beginning of the month there will be intermittent rains, the prevailing temperature during the day — +9…+14 degrees, in Murmansk region — +4…+9 °С. By the middle of the first decade without significant precipitation, in the afternoon — +6…+11°С, frosts are possible at night. At the end of the first ten days, precipitation will pass, in the afternoon — +8…+13 °С, in Murmansk region — +5…+10 °С.

By the middle of the month, windy weather is expected with short-term precipitation, in the afternoon — +5…+10 degrees. The most intense cooling is expected in the middle of the third decade, in the afternoon — 0…-5 degrees, the ground will be powdered with snow, sleet on roads. October will end with warming, light precipitation will pass, daytime temperature — +2…+7°C.

October turned out to be abnormally warm in polar Murmansk in 1987. The average monthly temperature reached +6.4°C, which is more than 5 degrees higher than usual. Precipitation fell  40% of the norm. On October 17th, the air warmed up to a record +14.5 degrees. Last year's month was close to normal in terms of temperature, and rainfall was abundant. In the last days of the month, thaws alternated with light frosts, the ground was covered with snow.

In Central Chernozem Regionthe expected average monthly temperature will be +6…+7°C, which is within the multi-year norm. Estimated rainfall — 35-45 mm, which is slightly smaller than usual.

Dry and warm weather is expected in the beginning of October: daytime temperature — +18…+23 °С. By the middle of the first decade, intermittent rain, in the afternoon — +15…+20 degrees. At the end of the first ten days, light rains, daily temperature — +11…+16 degrees.

By mid-October, intermittent rain in places, maximum temperature in the afternoon — +8…+13 °С. At the end of the second decade without precipitation, frosts at night, maximum temperature in the daytime — +7…+12 °С. By the beginning of the third ten-day period, light rain is expected, the temperature in the afternoon — +10…+15 °С. In the middle of the third decade, light precipitation will pass, in the afternoon — +1…+6 degrees, at night it will freeze up to  -3 °С. +8…+13 °C

October 1992 became abnormally wet, when 179 mm fell in Kursk, or more than 4 monthly norms. Particularly heavy precipitation came with the exits of the Mediterranean cyclones at the end of the second and the beginning of the third ten-day period. October was the warmest month in 2020. The average monthly temperature reached +11.1 °C, which is 4.6 degrees higher than usual. A full-fledged Indian summer continued in the first decade. Last year's month was very dry, but cool. Only at the beginning of the third decade did the air warm up to  +16 … +17 °C. It was warm in the last days of October: +10…+15 degrees.

In Volga-Vyatka regionand on Middle Volgathe estimated average monthly temperature will be +5…+6 °C, which is close to normal. Expected Rainfall — 40-50 mm, which is slightly less than the average long-term values.

Dry and warm weather is expected in the first days of the month, daily temperature — +17…+22 °С. By the end of the first ten days, there will be intermittent rain, in the afternoon — +11…+16 degrees.

In the middle of the month it will be cloudy with clearings, there will be light rains, in the afternoon the maximum temperature — +7…+12 °С, frosts are possible at night. By the beginning of the third ten-day period, it will rain in the warm sector of the cyclone, in the afternoon — +9…+14 °С. By the middle of the third decade, short-term precipitation, at night — up to -5 °С, in the afternoon — 0…+5 °С, sleet on roads in places. October will end with dry weather, slight frosts at night, daytime temperature will be +4…+9 °С.

October 1976 was abnormally cold in Nizhny Novgorod. The average monthly temperature turned out to be negative and amounted to -1.8 degrees. A record low monthly high was recorded — +8.2 degrees, which was observed on 5 October.

The second half of the month turned out to be dominated by a powerful anticyclone of Arctic origin. At night it froze down to -3…-8 degrees, the daytime temperature was generally slightly positive. The record of the month for heat was recorded on the 3rd day in 1991 — +24.1 degrees. It is curious that at the end of the month the first snow fell and it became much colder on the morning of the 31st to -8.6 degrees. But since abnormally warm weather prevailed in the first and second decades, the month went more than 3 degrees above the norm. Last year's October, in terms of temperature, was close to the average multi-year values, precipitation was less than normal. The warmest weather was at the beginning of the second ten-day period, when in sunny weather the air warmed up to +15…+16 degrees.

On Lower Volga< /strong> expected average temperature of the month — +8…+11 °C, which is within the normal range. Estimated rainfall — 25-40 mm, which is within the normal range, in places an excess of moisture is likely.

In the first days of the month it is dry and warm, the temperature during the day — +20…+25 °С. By the end of the first decade, light rain is expected in places and it will become cooler, in the afternoon — +13…+18 degrees.

In the middle of the month — light rain, temperature during the day — +10…+15 degrees. By the end of the second decade, short-term precipitation is expected in some places, during the day the maximum temperature will be +5 … +10 ° С, frosts are possible at night. At the beginning of the third ten-day period, it will rain, thunderstorms are possible in some places, during the day the maximum temperature — 12-17 degrees of heat. By the middle of the third decade, there will be light precipitation in places, in the afternoon — +3…+8 °С, frosts at night. The month will end with dry weather, daily temperature — +8…+13 °C.

In the south of ETR the expected average temperature in October — +10…+12 °C, which is within the normal range. Estimated rainfall — 40-60 mm, which is close to usual, in some places excess moisture is possible.

In the first days of the month it will be dry and very warm, the prevailing temperature during the day — +22…+27 degrees. By the end of the first decade, short-term rain, thunderstorms are possible in places, in the afternoon — +16…+21 °С.

In mid-October, in some places, light rains, during the day the maximum temperature is —+13…+18 °С. At the end of the second decade without significant precipitation and it will become even cooler, during the day — +10…+15 degrees, slight frosts are possible at night.

By the beginning of the third ten-day period, intermittent rain in places, daytime temperature — +19…+24 °С. In the middle of the third decade it will be cloudy, it will rain, +8…+13 degrees in the daytime, slight frosts in the north of the region at night. The month will end with dry and warm weather, the temperature during the day — +11…+16 °С, on the Black Sea coast —+15…+20 degrees.

The real velvet season turned out on the Black Sea coast in the first half of October 2020. During the day, the air warmed up to & nbsp; + 26 … + 28 & nbsp; degrees. Yes the whole month was more than 3 degrees above the norm. Not there were no records. 28 October in the resort of Sochi the air warmed up to +25.8 degrees. But last year's month was not so favorable to vacationers. Already from the first days of the month, the confrontation between a powerful blocking anticyclone and the Black Sea cyclone turned into torrential rains with gusty winds with a daily temperature of +15 … +18 degrees. Only in the middle of the month the weather improved, during the day the air warmed up to +22°C. As a result, the month turned out to be wet and cool.

In Crimea the expected average temperature in October — +10…+11 °C, which is within the normal range. Expected rainfall — 35-45 mm, which is close to usual.

At the beginning of the month it is dry and warm, the temperature during the day — +23…+28 degrees. By the end of the first ten days, intermittent rain, in the afternoon — +15…+20 °С .

In mid-October, partly cloudy, in some places light rain, during the day the maximum temperature — +11…+16 °С. By the end of the second decade without significant precipitation, in the afternoon — +9…+14 degrees, light frosts in places at night. At the beginning of the third decade, intermittent rain, in the afternoon — +18…+23 °С. By the middle of the third ten-day period it will rain, during the day the maximum temperature — +7…+12 degrees, light frosts in places at night. In the last days of the month, dry and warm weather will set in, during the day the air will warm up to + 14…+19 °C.

October 2020  The average monthly temperature in Simferopol reached +16.5°C, which is more than 5°C higher than usual. 8 and 13 the air warmed up to +31.1°C, which became daily records. It became significantly colder only at the end of the second decade, there were short-term rains.

Last year's October was dry, but  cool, only at the beginning of the third ten-day period the thermometer was able to briefly overcome the +20 degree mark.

In Uralsthe expected average monthly temperature — +4…+7 °С, which is somewhat warmer than usual. Estimated rainfall — 25-50 mm, which is close to usual, moisture deficiency is likely in places.

In the beginning of the month it is dry and warm, daily temperature — +15…+20 degrees, in South Urals — up to +23 °C. By the middle of the first decade, light rains will pass in places, in the afternoon — +3…+8 °С, in Southern Ural — up to 13 degrees, frosts are possible at night.

At at the end of the first ten days, light rain in places, daytime temperature — +7…+12 °C, in Southern Urals no precipitation, during the day the air will warm up to +11…+16 degrees.

By the middle of the month without significant precipitation, frosts are expected at night, —+5 … +10 °C in the afternoon, in Southern Urals — up to +14 degrees. At the end of the second decade, slight precipitation, in the afternoon — +1…+6 °C, in some places up to  8 degrees of heat. By the beginning of the third ten-day period, precipitation will pass, the temperature during the day — +4…+9 °С, in Southern Ural — up to +12 °C. A cold wave is expected in the middle of the third decade, slight frosts in the afternoon, in the Southern Urals — near zero, in some places light snow, sleet. October will end with warming, daily temperature — +2…+7 degrees, in south to +9 °С, light rain in places.

Record warm was October 1991 in Yekaterinburg. The average monthly temperature was +7°C, which is 5.6°C higher than usual. 4 and 5 the air warmed up to +24.4 and +22.3°C respectively, which became daily records. The coldest month was in 1976 year. The average monthly temperature was -5.1°C, which is 6.5°C lower than usual. From the beginning of the second decade, the nature of the weather became winter, and at the end of the month, on the 31st, a record morning frost was recorded. The thermometer dropped to  -22 degrees. October last year was dry and moderately warm. On the 14th, in the afternoon, the air warmed up to +16.8 degrees, which became the warmest day of the month.

In the south of Western Siberiathe estimated average monthly temperature — +3…+4 °C, which is a degree above the norm. Expected rainfall — 30-45 mm, which is slightly less than usual, excess moisture is likely in the Altai Territory.

At the beginning of the month, light rain, in the afternoon — +5…+10 degrees, frosts are possible at night. By the middle of the first decade, it will be cloudy and warm, in the afternoon the air will warm up to +13 … +18 ° С. At the end of the first ten days, light precipitation will pass in places and it will sharply get colder at night to frost, in the afternoon — up to +1…+6 degrees.

By the middle of the month without precipitation, in the afternoon the maximum temperature — +8…+13 °С. At the end of the second decade — intermittent precipitation, daily temperature — +2…+7 °С, frosts at night. By the beginning of the third decade without precipitation, during the day the maximum temperature — +6…+11 degrees, in Altai Territory — up to 13 degrees of heat. In unstable weather is expected in the last days of October, alternating slight frosts and thaws, on some days light precipitation, black ice.

The warmest October was observed in 2011 year. The average monthly temperature in Novosibirsk was +6.3°C, which is 3.2°C higher than usual. In the first half of the month, the weather was abnormally warm and mostly dry, on the 15th the air warmed up to a record +20.2 degrees. The first snow appeared only in the last days of the month. The coldest was October 1976 with an average monthly temperature of -4 degrees, which is more than 5 degrees lower than usual. On October 26, in the morning, it froze to -26.4 degrees, which became an absolute monthly record. Last year's October, according to the average monthly temperature and the amount of precipitation, was within the limits of the average multi-year values. The warmest day was observed at the end of the second decade, when the air warmed up to +15 degrees during the day.

In south of Eastern Siberiaexpected average temperature months — +2…+3 °C, which is within the average long-term values. Estimated rainfall — 35-40 mm, which is close to usual, excess moisture is likely in Irkutsk region.

In the first days of the month it is cloudy with small precipitation, daytime temperature — +4…+9 °C, at night — frosts down to -2 °C K in the middle of the first ten days without precipitation, daytime temperature +11…+16 °C. At the end of the first decade, a cold wave is expected, light precipitation will pass, it will freeze to -10 & nbsp; ° C at night, 0 … -3 ° C in the daytime, sleet on roads in places.

K in the middle dry weather is expected in October, the maximum temperature in the daytime — +8…+13 degrees, frosts will persist at night.

The third decade will be distinguished by unstable weather, frequent precipitation and fluctuations in temperature — in the afternoon from +5…+10°С to 0…-5°С, closer to the end of the month the ground will be covered with snow, slippery roads.

In the  south of the Far East region ​the expected average temperature of the month — +5…+10 °C, which is slightly above the norm. Expected rainfall — 25-40 mm, which is less than usual, in the Khabarovsk Territory — within normal range.

In the first decade without significant precipitation, only in the Khabarovsk Territory in some days intermittent rains, in the afternoon — +12…+17 degrees. By the middle of the month it will rain, windy, in the afternoon — +5…+10 °С, light frosts in places at night. At the end of the second decade, it is again dry and warm, during the day the air warms up to +11 … +16 ° С. By the end of the month, short-term precipitation, daytime temperature — +6…+11 degrees, in Khabarovsk Territory — 0…+5 °C.

In Kaliningrad Oblast (Kaliningrad)Expected average temperature — +8…+9°C, which is within the normal range. Estimated rainfall — 70-80 mm, which is close to usual.

In the first days of the month without significant precipitation, in the afternoon the maximum temperature — +17…+22 degrees. By the middle of the first decade, it will rain and the wind will intensify, the daily temperature — +12…+17 °С. At the end of the first ten days, there will be short rains, during the day the maximum temperature — +10…+15 degrees.

By the middle of the month, light rain in places, daily temperature — from 11 to 16 degrees Celsius. At the end of the second decade without significant precipitation, during the day the maximum temperature — +7…+12 °C, at night there is a possibility of frost. By the middle of the third decade, light rain in places, the prevailing daytime temperature is from  5 to 10 degrees of heat, at night there are frosts in places. October will end with warm weather, afternoon — +10…+15 °С, short rains are not excluded.

The warmest day was observed on October 4, 1966, when the air warmed up to + 26.4 degrees. Last year's October, according to the average temperature, was close to normal, precipitation fell below the norm. In the first decade, thanks to the anticyclone, the weather was dry, during the day the air warmed up to +13 … +18 degrees, at the end of the decade frosts were noted. The most intense rains took place at the beginning of the third decade, the daytime temperature dropped from +17 to +10 degrees. The month ended with very warm and dry weather, the daytime temperature reached +16…+17°C.

In St. Petersburgestimated average temperature in October — +6…+7 °C, which is within the normal range. Expected Rainfall — 80-90 mm, which is slightly more than usual.

In the first days of the month there will be light rains, in the afternoon — +11…+16 °С. By the middle of the first ten days it will rain, the daily temperature — +10…+15 degrees. At the end of the first decade, intermittent rain, during the day the maximum temperature — +8…+13 °С.

By the middle of the month it is cloudy with clearings, without significant precipitation, —+6…+11°C in the afternoon. At the end of the second ten-day period it will be cloudy with clearings, there will be light precipitation, in the afternoon — from 3 to 8 degrees of heat, frosts are expected at night. By the middle of the third decade it is cloudy with clearings, short-term precipitation, during the day the maximum temperature — 0…+5 °С, at night it will freeze up to -3 degrees, on roads there are sleet in places. October will end with warming, there will be light rains: in the afternoon the maximum temperature — +5…+10 °С.

Last year's October turned out to be somewhat warmer than usual, the amount of precipitation was within the average multi-year values. The warmest day was marked on October 6, in the afternoon the air warmed up to +16.1 degrees. Heavy rains passed on October 20 and 21, more than half of the monthly norm fell in two days. The month ended with dry and very warm weather, during the day the maximum temperature reached +10…+13°C.

In Moscow and Moscow Regionestimated average monthly temperature — +6…+7 °C, which is within the average long-term values. Expected rainfall — 50-60 mm, which is somewhat smaller than usual.

At the beginning of October without significant precipitation: the temperature in the afternoon — +15…+20 °С. By the middle of the first decade, intermittent rains, in the afternoon — +12…+17 degrees. At the end of the first ten days it will be cloudy with clearings, there will be light rains, the temperature in the afternoon — +9…+14 °С. By the beginning of the second decade, short-term precipitation in places, in the afternoon — +3…+8 degrees, light frosts in places at night.

In the middle of the month it is cloudy with clearings, without significant precipitation, the maximum temperature in the afternoon — +8…+13 degrees. By the end of the second ten days, light rains are likely, in the afternoon — +5…+10 °С. In the middle of the third ten-day period, it will be cloudy with clearings, there will be light precipitation, during the day the temperature is close to zero, at night it will freeze to -5°C, on the roads there are sleet in places. October will end with warming, the maximum temperature during the day — +7…+12 °C, no significant precipitation is expected.

Last year's October temperature regime was close to normal. Precipitation fell below the long-term average. In the first decade, due to a powerful anticyclone, the weather was dry, if in the first days of the month, due to inversion cloudiness, it was cool, not higher than + 7 … + 8 degrees, then in the & nbsp; then clear weather set in, the air warmed up during the day up to +13…+15°С. In in the second half of the month, during the passage of a series of Atlantic cyclones, the weather became unstable, waves of heat and cold changed each other, short-term rains fell. The month ended with extremely dry and warm weather, on October 30, the maximum temperature reached +12 … +14 degrees, which is close to the daily record of 1967 — +14.5 °С. 

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